Why charting the economic cycle is as crucial as charting your menstrual cycle

What does 2023 hold for us, economically?

Let’s explore the economic cycle and what is in store for 2023.

Whilst none of us have a crystal ball, we know we can rely on historical data to support us in predicting what may be in store for this year. 

When we observe all years that end in “three” over the last 10, 20, 30, 40, 100, and 120 years; it is obvious that there are clear patterns. And this is not just for years ending in “3”. 

This happens for all the years!

Now when we look at 2021 and 2022, we know that typically years ending in “one” and “two” are pretty turbulent years. This was confirmed for 2021 and 2022. So when we look at 2023 and years ending in “three”, we typically see that 2023, or years ending in a “three” are recovery years; specifically from years ending in two.

So yeah, if we look at years ending in three that typically sandwiched between a poor year of a two ending in two and then you know the other side of it is an expensive year year that ends in a four, and we can definitely see this on the charts when you look at 2023 obviously, we will know more by the end by this time next year. But typically, that’s what happens.  

I have a feeling that like make it my Gut is saying that we’re gonna have a pretty steady year up until August September and then we’re going to see a rise in the book market arise and then book markets, however, the experts I’m in everything that I’ve studied is predicting that things are gonna be in our similarly flowing along around February March and then we’re gonna see a slight turn in the markets, and then we’re going to see kind of not a bull market a small rise that’s going to stop which is then going essentially set the pace for the rest of the year.

Which is essentially getting ready for an expensive year going into 2024. now I will be going into every single decade before 2023 in FFLL so if you are interested in that there’s some really really cool stuff in there But as I said, you know ending in three consolidation years and so years ending in two typically are difficult years and 2022 did not disappoint. 

It was definitely definitely one of those years now there are going to be continuing reports of an economic crash coming it’s just what happens as the market starts to recover and as the market starts to get ready for a bull market all the headlines are going to be telling you otherwise. They're gonna be telling you other things. 

We’re seeing a lot of changes you know if we look at India they’re increasing the military hardware they spending a lot of money on infrastructure is a lot of things happening with China as well so that does this a lot of things that are in a play and the real estate cycle that I speak about the 18.6 real estate cycle is definitely definitely happening. 

Now what we can see is that you know if we look at say 2002, for example, its a really bad year for tech stocks and that the failure of Enron, Emsen, Worldcom you know you look at 2022 and we had the failure of FTX he look at say 1982 you know it was also the mid-cycle slowdown, there was a runaway inflation. There was a massive boom that followed 1982 and so when we look at that we can see that 1983 was also an up year which probably means at 2023 will also be an up year.

There's also some key dates that you know if we look at 1963 so 60 years ago on 22 November 1963 it’s a key date, key dates are very very important because I don’t know if you remember that on 22 November 1963 is when JFK was assassinated and this year around that date something significant is going to happen, and we could see potentially yes some drama occur with US presidents that if we look at that and taking the helicopter you with that is only really been ever two presidents in US history that have been against the nation's involvement in the external war. 

Now those two presidents Kennedy and Trump so who knows what’s gonna happen with Trump this year and round that November 22 year of these things are you know I’m not pulling these out of my ass it’s a significant days of things that actually happen. It’s just the cycles of life if we look at 1933 was a recovery year obviously know there was a lot of war around then in the market gained 35% And if we look at 1923 again in 100 years cycles are significant and while things don’t happen exactly as they did all they may not exactly exactly happen in the same way. Key dates are important and we know patterns patterns are real and so when we look at in 100 years ago in 1923 we had a US president that died in office on 2 August now why is it that I am constantly referring to USA because the US leads away to the US markets, the US cycles other ones at least one in the rest of the western nations follower. Now, remember this is a macro level not a micro level you’ve got the macrocycle which is what I’m speaking to, and then each city each state each country has its own micros cycle within that so you have to be really mindful of this. 

That’s a high-level update on the year of 2023 and an in years ending in three essentially now like I said it’s gonna be a fairly new year of recovery as I said key dates are indicating around either February or March whatever happens around then when the market goes up or down is kind of a trend it’s gonna be set in stone for the rest of the year now for me I have this gut feeling that we’ve gone to August September who knows if that’s not right then I’m gonna keep a lookout for what happens in August and September It’s very interesting. This time of year always brings me to study you know the outlooks what’s happening looking at the charts but obviously, you know we look back at 2022 its the year with stimulus conditions that were insured do you know in that happened in 2020 and 2021, 2022 was always going to be the year with the stimulus conditions came to an end and what do I mean by that I mean that what goes up my down and so whilst the government was pumping so much money so so much money into their economy between 2020 and 2021 it was fabricated market. It was a market that was not sustainable. They couldn’t couldn’t keep going and so what we see now you know especially last year was the recovery of that it was a correction in the market 2023 will see another correction so it will essentially balance out what happened in 2022.

so I’ll leave you with that, I know it’s a lot to take in. I will potentially go through each decade with you tomorrow and yeah, as I said, this is really exciting stuff for me and this time of year really really sets the time for what’s going to happen in the upcoming few months. 

 for those of you who are planning on you know starting your business is getting your adding to your portfolios. This is a good you know please don’t get spooked by all the headlines it is this is not worth it down your path keep in love with your investment plan review your rules make sure that you know you’re not making emotional decisions and the rest will just take care of itself and with that, I will love and leave you.